Fed Decision October 2026: Rates Held in 10-2 Vote

Fed Decision October 2026: Rates on Hold, What Comes in December?

October 26, 2026

Quick answer: The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday 28 October 2026, in a 10 to 2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack wanted a 25 basis point hike. The "Fed Decision in October?" market closed on No change, and the focus now moves to December, where a hike was about 73.5% on Chipstars Predictions on 30 October 2026.

Updated: 30 October 2026

Decision: Hold at 3.75% to 4.00%, Wednesday 28 October 2026
Vote: 10 to 2, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred a 25 basis point hike
Last move: 25 basis point hike on 16 September 2026, the first since July 2023
Next decision: Wednesday 9 December 2026, after a two-day meeting
Chipstars Predictions, December: 25 bps hike about 73.5%, no change about 24.5%

What did the Fed decide in October 2026?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. In its statement the Fed said inflation remains elevated, that the economy is expanding at a strong pace, and that it wants more information before deciding its next step.

The hold was what nearly everyone expected. A Reuters poll taken before the meeting found 94 of 100 economists forecasting no change.

Who voted against the decision?

Two members dissented: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. Both preferred a 25 basis point hike. That is a clear change from September, when the committee voted 12 to 0 to raise rates.

What did Kevin Warsh say about December?

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no promise either way. "I don't believe in forward guidance absent exigent circumstances, absent a crisis," he told reporters. He also said politics played no role in the decision, days before the US midterm elections.

Why did the Fed hold rates in October?

The case for waiting came from the jobs market. The September report showed US employers added only 29,000 jobs, far below forecasts, and unemployment rose to 4.2%.

Could the Fed raise rates in December?

Many forecasters think so, because inflation is moving the wrong way. US consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4% in August, led by gasoline and other energy costs. Oil has stayed above $100 a barrel as the war with Iran disrupts supply, and new import tariffs add to prices.

In the Reuters poll, all 100 economists expected a hike in December, and nearly 60% of forecasters saw the peak at 4.00% to 4.25%. A hike on 9 December would lift the range to 4.00% to 4.25%.

What do the Fed odds say on Chipstars Predictions?

Each answer on Chipstars Predictions shows a percentage that tracks the market price. As of 30 October 2026:

Fed Decision in October? Closed on No change
Fed Decision in December? 25 bps increase about 73.5%, no change about 24.5%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes (no cut this year) about 97%

These markets settle on the upper bound of the target range (4.00% today) as published in the FOMC statement. The percentages move with every data release and every word from Fed officials. Other pricing can differ: Admirals, citing Bloomberg data, reported a December hike near 85% on the day of the decision.

A lower percentage means a bigger return if you are right. As a rough guide, an answer bought at about 25% returns around four times the stake if it wins, while one at about 75% returns around one and a third times. Your price is fixed when you bet. New to this? Read how prediction markets work.

What could a Fed hike mean for Bitcoin?

Higher rates make safe yields more attractive, which can weigh on risky assets such as crypto. Before the meeting, FinanceFeeds reported that Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 on 24 October, after US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $773 million in outflows on 22 and 23 October. Its analysts saw the October hold as priced in and the tone on December as the real driver. That is one view, not a rule: Bitcoin also moves for reasons unrelated to the Fed.

How to bet on the next Fed decision at Chipstars

Log in to your Chipstars account and open Predictions.
Tap the search icon (magnifying glass) at the top right, type "Fed" and open "Fed Decision in December?".
Pick your answer and check its percentage.
Enter your stake, check the possible return on the bet slip and confirm.

The December market stays open until the 9 December decision.

FAQ

What is the current Fed interest rate?

The federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00%. It was set on 16 September 2026 and left unchanged on 28 October 2026.

Is a Fed rate cut possible in 2026?

Markets see it as very unlikely: in "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?", Yes (no cut this year) stood at about 97% on Chipstars Predictions on 30 October 2026.

Can I still bet on the December Fed meeting?

Yes. "Fed Decision in December?" stays open until 9 December, and its percentages react to every new data release.

Can I bet on the Fed from any country?

No. Chipstars is operated by SoftSpark Services s.r.l, licensed in Anjouan (licence ALSI-202409048-FI2), and does not accept players from the USA, France, the Netherlands, Singapore, Curaçao or Comoros. Check the rules where you live.

Sources

Play responsibly

Chipstars is for players aged 18+ only. Betting on a Fed decision is gambling, not investing: it is entertainment, not a source of income, and even a 74% favourite can lose. Only bet what you can afford to lose, set a deposit limit and take breaks. All tools are on the Chipstars responsible gaming page. You can also browse the Chipstars sportsbook.

Share with your friends: