Israel Election 2026 Results: Who Will Be Prime Minister?

October 26, 2026

Quick answer: The official result of the 27 October 2026 election goes to President Isaac Herzog on 4 November and nobody has a majority. Likud won 27 seats and Yashar 21; Netanyahu's bloc has 53, the Eisenkot bloc 48 and Arab-led parties a record 19, with 61 needed. On Chipstars Predictions, Eisenkot is about 53.5% to be prime minister and Netanyahu about 30%.

Updated: 4 November 2026

Election day: Tuesday 27 October 2026
Seats: 120 in the Knesset, 61 needed for a majority
Final result: Netanyahu bloc 53, Eisenkot bloc 48, Arab-led parties 19
Turnout: About 78%, on 5.7 million votes
Next prime minister on Chipstars Predictions (4 November): Eisenkot about 53.5%, Netanyahu about 30%, Bennett about 4.5%, Lieberman about 3.5%
Most seats market: Settled: Likud
Mandate deadline: Herzog names a candidate by 11 November 2026

What are the final Israel election results?

Eleven lists passed the 3.25% threshold, according to the final Central Elections Committee count:

Netanyahu bloc (53): Likud 27, United Torah Judaism 7, Otzma Yehudit 7, Religious Zionism with Zehut 6, Shas 6
Eisenkot bloc (48): Yashar 21, Together 12, The Democrats 8, Yisrael Beytenu 7
Arab-led parties (19): Joint List 11, Ra'am 8

The 19 seats for Arab-led parties are a record, above the 15 won in 2020. Likud lost nine seats but stayed the largest party, and the outgoing coalition fell from 68 seats to 53. The Reservists, at 2.72%, and Amcha Yisrael, at 1.68%, were among the lists that missed the threshold.

What happens now?

Central Elections Committee chairman Noam Sohlberg hands the results to President Herzog on 4 November. Herzog then consults the parties over two days, starting that evening, and each one tells him who it recommends. He has until 11 November to give the mandate to the candidate he judges most likely to form a government.

That candidate has 28 days and can get a 14-day extension. If it fails, Herzog can name someone else, and if that also fails, a majority of lawmakers can nominate a candidate within 21 days. Otherwise Israel votes again. Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister until a new government is sworn in.

Ynetnews expects about 60 lawmakers to recommend Eisenkot (Yashar, Together, The Democrats, the Joint List and Ra'am) and 46 to recommend Netanyahu (Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Shas and Religious Zionism). Yisrael Beytenu and United Torah Judaism, with 7 seats each, have not declared. Herzog is not bound by that count. Eisenkot has rejected serving under Netanyahu, including in a rotation, so a unity government looks unlikely for now.

Who is favoured to be the next prime minister of Israel?

The market has swung again. In "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?", Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces who leads Yashar, stood at about 53.5% on 4 November 2026, up from about 18% on 28 October. Benjamin Netanyahu fell from about 44% to about 30% as the final count took his bloc from 55 seats to 53.

Naftali Bennett, who heads Together, was at about 4.5% and Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beytenu at about 3.5%. The second market, "Israeli Legislative Election Winner", is settled: Likud won the most seats.

Why the largest party may not form the government

Winning the most seats does not make a party leader prime minister. Likud is the largest party, but the president gives the mandate to the candidate with the best chance of building a majority, and neither bloc has 61 seats alone. After the November 2022 election, Netanyahu needed 58 days to form his government.

The Arab-led parties, with 19 seats, are the key question. They are expected to recommend Eisenkot, but that is not the same as joining a government: several parties in his bloc have ruled out a coalition with Ra'am.

How the prime minister market on Chipstars Predictions works

The prime minister market settles on the person who is officially sworn in as prime minister after this election. A caretaker prime minister does not count. Because coalition talks can take weeks, this market may stay open well after election night.

Each answer is shown as a percentage, which is the price of a Yes. The percentage moves with news: it moved on the exit polls and the final count, and it will move again with each step of coalition talks. A correct Yes pays more the lower the percentage you bought at. In simple terms, a Yes bought at 25% returns about four times the stake if it is right, and one bought at 50% about twice. Your bet slip shows the exact return before you confirm.

New to this? Read our guide on how prediction markets work.

How to find the markets: open Predictions, tap the search icon (magnifying glass) at the top right and type "Israel". The open market is called "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?".

FAQ

Who won the Israel election 2026?

Nobody has a majority. Likud is the largest party with 27 seats, Netanyahu's bloc has 53, the Eisenkot bloc 48 and the Arab-led parties 19. A government needs 61.

What are the odds for the next Israeli prime minister?

On Chipstars Predictions on 4 November 2026: Eisenkot about 53.5%, Netanyahu about 30%, Bennett about 4.5% and Lieberman about 3.5%.

When will we know who the prime minister is?

Herzog names a candidate by 11 November. That person then has 28 days, plus a possible 14, so it can take weeks. The market settles only when a prime minister is sworn in.

Can the percentage change after I bet?

Yes, the market keeps moving, but your bet stays at the price you took.

Sources

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